A sure sign that something was going wrong was when the markets replaced Monica Lewinsky or Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa as the main story on television news. An even surer one was when the Dow and foreign politics replaced sex scandals and baseball as the main topic of conversation at Tony’s barbershop.
Admittedly his salon is downtown but his clientele consists mainly of janitors and truck drivers; the young high-fliers who populate Wall Street these days prefer stylists to barbers. Now when one of the few remaining middle-aged bankers or brokers crosses his threshold and sits in one of his three chairs, he does ask, ‘How are things?’ But his regulars know that only a brief ‘fine’ or ‘so so’ or ‘don’t ask’ is required; detailed analysis is not expected. Both parties know the question and answer are only formal preliminaries to be got through fast before moving on to the more important issues of the day.
‘So is it all the Russkies’ fault?’ Tony asked as he tied a cape round my neck.
‘Is what their fault?’ I responded. ‘The market crash,’ he said firmly.
I tried to explain that it wasn’t a crash but an adjustment; that corporate profits had been on a downward trend for some time and this was now being reflected in stock prices. But Tony was having none of it.
‘So, if it’s being going on for some time, how come no-one noticed until Russia went pear-shaped? How come all these so-called experts got it wrong?’
I wanted to tell him that some experts, from Alan Greenspan down, had got it right; to explain the important role of confidence in driving markets; and how events affected confidence. But he wasn’t to be interrupted.
‘This guy was on TV the other night – a so-called expert. Last year he’d written a book on Russia, what a great future it had and why it was the place to invest. So they asked him how come he got it wrong. And do you know what his answer was?’
I confessed I didn’t.
‘He said he didn’t get it at all wrong; the Russians did.’
There was no chance of talking about the role of economic policy; Tony was in full flight. ‘Look, I give you a horse, right? I tell you straight it’s the best thing on four legs. So you go and put big money on it and it comes absolutely nowhere. So you ask me what went wrong. And I say that it wasn’t the horse’s fault; the jockey was a schlemiel.’
‘So?’ I interjected as he paused for breath.
‘So if I’m a so called-expert I should tell you the horse will only win if it has the right jockey sitting on top of it. How could this guy say everything was going hunky-dory in Russia when it was being run by that shicker Yeltsin?’
He went on relentlessly. ‘But then these so-called experts are always telling us governments don’t matter; the markets should decide everything. It drives my dad mad. My dad’s 85 but he’s as bright as a button. And he’s a new dealer through and through. You know what he says when these guys go on about less government and lower taxes?’
I managed to get in a ‘No’.
‘He says look at the NFL.’
An uncomprehending silence on my part.
‘What’s the most successful sport in America? Football, right? And how is it run?’ he demanded. I remained silent.
‘Well the NFL takes some of the gate money from the richest teams and gives it to the poorest teams. And it shares out the money that comes from television. And the weakest teams get first pick of the rookies. If they didn’t do that, the top teams would get all the money and all the best players. You’d end up with one or two teams dominating the leagues and getting stronger and stronger. So there’d be no real competition and then no-one would be interested and football would die. So my dad says the NFL is successful because it taxes the rich and helps the poor.’
‘And what do you say to that?’ I asked as Tony whipped off my cape, having completed his labors.
‘I say my dad can be a real pain in the butt. But he’s lived through a lot and you have to respect his experience.’
He held up a mirror and, as I made the customary grunts of approval, I noted the increasing number of gray hairs. If only everyone respected age as much as Tony.
