Theo is a loser. But I like him. I’ve known both those points from our first meeting eight years or so ago and nothing much has happened to change my opinion on either count ever since. Perhaps the only difference is that now I know that Theo really excels at messing things up — all the time — and that makes me warm toward him even more. Certainly, there’s an element of him making me feel better about myself but, then again, what are friends for?
We originally bumped into each other on a platform at London’s Victoria station as we sprinted for the same train. I say ‘we’, but Theo actually did most of the bumping, dropping his suitcase into the bargain and spilling its contents and much of his life across the platform. Missing the train was a small price to pay for the entertainment of this comical stranger rescuing clothes and academic notes from under the feet of harried commuters. I took pity on his plight and found a friend.
Today, the waitress had already mopped up Theo’s coffee and brought him a fresh Danish after the first had mysteriously jumped onto the floor. And this was on his home territory. He’d moved back to Amsterdam six months ago and, on the evidence I’d seen so far, it had had little negative impact on his ability to cause chaos wherever he went. Nor had it had much of a positive effect on any of Theo’s money-making projects. He was busy explaining to me why he abhorred internet stocks.
‘I won’t go near them,’ said Theo, spurting crumbs of his pastry in my general direction. ‘Most of them haven’t got any earnings — it really goes against the basics of investing. In any case, it’s a fad. It will pass. And when it does I’ll be safely sitting on a wad of wisely invested money while you net-freaks cry at the fortunes you’ve lost.’
I politely ventured that I wasn’t a ‘net-freak’ just because I had one or two dot-coms in my portfolio, I was merely pointing out that they had massively outperformed anything else I had ever invested in.
‘Yeah, well don’t take those gains for granted, it’s all going to go belly-up sometime soon. Listen, for once, to what your good friend Theo has to say.’ He lit a cigarette and blew the smoke toward the ceiling. I was in for a lecture. ‘Being Dutch does have its advantages in this situation. Tulip bulbs were all the rage here in the seventeenth century but a lot of supposedly wealthy people went bankrupt when the market collapsed. It’s the same thing again — read your history books and learn — it’s going to collapse and I won’t be crying over cyberspace when it does.’
This really was rich coming from Theo. Not so long ago he had spent thousands of pounds on koi carp with the express intention of making a killing when he sold them on. Unfortunately, his polluted pond did all the killing and he found that dead fish have little market value. It brought a whole new meaning to floating the business.
‘You seem to be forgetting that a lot of people also made a great deal of money out of tulip bulbs,’ I pointed out. ‘The internet may be a ‘fad’, as you call it, but that’s what markets are all about. What’s in fashion is in high demand, is in high growth. Latching onto that demand isn’t that difficult, it’s just a question of knowing when to get out. Still, if you just sit smugly — and safely — on the sidelines you don’t even get a look in. I’d rather have millions and lose it than never have it at all.’
Theo wasn’t convinced. He’d put a lot of money into tobacco stocks of late, betting on a return to good fortune once investors overcame their fascination with legal challenges and recognized the real potential in fast-growing emerging markets. They were going to be the next big thing.
‘Everyone’s onto the internet thing now,’ he said. ‘You’ve got to find the next growth story, the next turnaround. I’m telling you, tobacco’s where it’s at.’ I suggested that he might see his money go up in smoke but Theo wasn’t in the mood for jokes. He was betting on the power of nicotine addiction and was smoking more than normal in a bid to give his investments a push in the right direction.
I symbolically stubbed my cigarette out and resolved to invest in an internet-based tulip bulb distributor. Now that was a growth stock if ever there was one.
