As we approach the end of the year, it’s a good time to look back at the past twelve months and have a laugh. How many people remember the atmosphere at this time last year when everybody was holding their breath for Y2K? The new year came and went and everyone had a little snigger about how much fuss there had been. Of course there were those who cussed their way into springtime over how much money the scare had cost them.
Twelve months ago the joke might have been: How many Y2K specialists does it take to change a lightbulb? Answer: Just one, so long as five more are on hand to monitor the new bulb at midnight.
If we knew then what we know now the answer might have been something like: None – just leave the old bulb in.
The past twelve months has seen a new, tarnished Nasdaq. In 2000 we all learned the lesson that tech stocks are fallible and what’s more, they make great targets for revenge. There is a saying in show business that the height of a celebrity’s stardom is directly proportional to the amount of enemies they attract. The idea is not a new one: The bigger they come, the harder they fall. So too with internet companies.
How many internet solution providers does it take to change a lightbulb? Answer: Never mind – with their burn rate, a dark office is the least of their problems.
Year 2000 drove a stake through the heart of sell-side credibility. Sure, in the past there had been some grumbling about analysts regurgitating guidance and calling it their own, but it wasn’t until this year that everyone started talking – no, screaming blue murder – about it. By the end of the third quarter, it seemed everyone assumed the term sell-side credibility was an oxymoron. (The word oxymoron, by the way, comes from the Greek root words oxy, meaning sharp, and moros, meaning foolish. It’s a perfect description of most sell-side analysts, who sound sharp but seem foolish. Or look sharp but sound foolish. In any case, the final message is foolish.)
How many sell-side analysts does it take to change a lightbulb? Answer: They couldn’t possibly make a change – at worst it’s a hold.
Of course the most important day in most IROs’ year was October 23: FD-Day. That was the day everyone began walking around practicing their scripts. No more off-the-cuff comments to fund managers. No more improvised jokes to break the ice during conference calls. No sir, October 23 was the day senior executives had their limits drawn. They were warned. Tamed. Muzzled. And that’s how they stand today as the year end approaches.
How many CEOs does it take to change a lightbulb? Just one, so long as the IR department follows promptly with a news release.
