Donald Trump campaigned for the US presidency on the back of promises to shake up global trade, tax and regulation. The first few months of his presidency, marked by a flurry of executive orders, suggest he will do all he can to fulfill his pledges. But will they lead to a net positive or negative impact on the global economy?
Initially, Trump’s victory led to bullishness among many investors, helping push US stocks to record highs. More recently, however, voices of concern have grown louder. In one example, credit ratings agency Fitch put out an unusually blunt report stating that the Trump administration is a risk to the global economy and sovereign finances.
And the IR community is siding with the pessimists, according to an online poll conducted by IR Magazine. The survey asked visitors to IRmagazine.com what impact they think Trump’s election will have on the global economy: of the 100 respondents, 50 percent think he will make it weaker. But a strong minority of respondents – 30 percent – are optimistic and believe Trump’s policies will lead to a stronger global economy.
Only one in five respondents are either unsure or say his impact will be neutral. You might expect this segment to be larger, given how early we are into the Trump administration. Then again, it’s not like Trump to leave people sitting on the fence.
